22/1 Corey Conners was the 54-hole leader here on debut
50/1 Jake Knapp has been strong on the Florida Swing
80/1 Adam Hadwin is a course horse with a previous Valspar win
Brief history of the Valspar Championship
First a part of the PGA Tour schedule in 2000, this relatively new tournament has rather been viewed as the Ringo of the Florida Swing. I'm going Players (John), Arnold Palmer (Paul) and Cognizant (George) for the other three by the way. Orginally held in the Autumn/Fall, the Tampa Bay tournament was switched to March in 2007. Now it has a regular spot although the 2021 event was held in May due to the pandemic which also wiped out the 2020 edition. Despite the short history, it's already witnessed four double champions in K J Choi, Retief Goosen, Paul Casey and Sam Burns. That's a nod to course form being a good pointer here and maybe that makes sense on a track that has a quirky five par 3s but the usual four par 5s and is atypical of a standard Florida layout. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is more tree-lined and undulating in nature, often drawing comparisons with golf courses in the Carolinas. The 7,352-yard par 71 that features overseeded Bermuda (rye on fairways and poa on greens) is certainly no pushover either and for the last two years it's been the hardest in relation to par on the Florida Swing. Perhaps that's why the field this year is as strong as it's been in modern memory. Putting themselves to the test are a host of big names, with
12/1 Justin Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood just edging out
14/1 Xander Schauffele at the top of the betting. One fly in the ointment is the weather. The weekend looks consistent enough but, as of Tuesday, it looks windy on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, thus making early/late the desirable draw. As we know, though things can change and last week's perceived bias for the early starters flipped completely the other way.
The safe, comfort blanket pick this week has to be Corey Conners after his strong showing so far on the Florida Swing. Conners posted third place at Bay Hill and then shot 66-71 on the weekend - four shots better than winner Rory McIlroy - to finish sixth at Sawgrass. Overall, he's been outside the top 26 just twice in his last 12 Florida starts. The Canadian has only been a sporadic starter here at Innisbrook but 16th (2018) and 21st (2021) in his only two visits are decent knocks and require a deeper dive. In the first of those he was the leader after rounds one, two and three before a Sunday slump so the two-time PGA Tour winner (2019 and 2023) may feel there's some unfinished business here. "
I think my ball striking was really strong, I think I putted quite well. Most of the days I was hitting my lines. And, yeah, got a lot of freedom with my iron play, hit a lot of great shots this week, and I think that will be important to continue next week." It continued very nicely that 'next week' where he ranked 12th for SG: Tee To Green. With Conners, it's the putter that often lets him down but he was 21st (Players) and 13th (API) for SGP in those two previous Florida events and also 13th in that category the start before at Torrey Pines. In short, he's rolling it nicely on the greens and that's been important here with the last four winners ranking 3rd, 9th, 8th and 3rd for SG: Putting. Conners, by the way, was actually first for SGP at the season-opening Sentry and is 69th overall this season compared to 128th in each of the previous two. He put a new flatstick in the bag ahead of Bay Hill and said: " I messed around with it for a few weeks now and first event with it. Feel like I'm rolling it really well and just like how it looks and feels and yeah been happy with the results so far. It's a new look for me. It looked a little funky when I first put it down, just because it was so different. But it looks really good to me now and I got a lot of confidence in it."
Finally, when he had his title run here in 2018, Conners talked constantly about the importance of putting the ball in play. Ranking third for Driving Accuracy at The Players Championship last week puts him in ideal shape to take on a course where rough is a factor. I'm a big fan of Jake Knapp after he did us a first-round leader favour at
70/1 with that scintillating opening 59 at the Cognizant Classic a few weeks ago. He finished sixth that week but perhaps gave the impression that just one exceptional round had done all the heavy lifting. But maybe that continues a rather unfair perception. Due to winning the Mexico Open with 19-under and claiming three Canadian Tour victories with scores of 20-under or better (if you've looked him up on Wiki), Knapp could be dismissed as a big hitter who putts well and that he should only be on the radar for birdie-fests. Wrong. The 30-year-old plays the tough tracks well too. He was third at Torrey Pines last year and 17th at the California venue when it staged this year's Genesis. And he backed up his sixth place at the Cognizant with 12th in last week's Players Championship where McIlroy won, following a play-off, with just 12-under. If putting is a big factor this week, Knapp is in great position to cash in as his blade is hot. He ranked first for SG: Putting at Sawgrass and 19th the week before at PGA National. It's his course debut but four top 12s in his last six Florida starts bodes well. He's gained shots on Approach in each of his last seven events so Knapp has lots of game and can make his mark at 50s.
To round off, I'll add a second Canadian in Adam Hadwin. This is very much a course horse play as Hadwin won this event in 2017, shooting 14-under to edge out Patrick Cantlay by a shot. But it doesn't end there. He was 12th when defending in 2018 and more recently Hadwin has landed the each-way money twice in the last three years via seventh in 2022 and fifth last year. After he opened with a first-round leading 64 in 2022, Hadwin said of the course: "It definitely fits my eye. It's kind of similar to courses that I grew up on, kind of through the trees. You got to work the golf ball both ways. You got to be in position off the tee, otherwise you get blocked out on certain holes. "I also think rewarding patience. I think that's kind of how I play golf. That's usually when I'm at my best, just kind of plodding along, not trying to do anything too fancy, center of the greens, hit as many as possible, and just keep giving myself looks. I think this place rewards that and can kind of punish some aggressiveness at times." That seems to back up why his Canuck compatriot Conners would like it too. We're getting 80s as Hadwin's current form is rather erratic. He's fired some wild scores and last week's opening 69 at Sawgrass which put him in the top 20 was followed by a 77 that sent him home at halfway. But there was some consistency in Phoenix last month where laps of 68-66-70-66 secured ninth place. That was his second top 10 in three starts at TPC Scottsdale and anyone who backs him every year at The American Express will know he has certain favourite tournaments. This is one of them and at 80s the man ranked 26th in Par 3 Scoring (there are five of them here, remember) is worth a punt.
