You know things are looking up for the Montreal Canadiens’ in their chase for a 2025 playoff spot when, even in a critical defeat, things seem to go their way. That was the case on Thursday, when the Habs, trailing 3-1 in the third against the hosting New York Islanders, who are similarly in the Eastern Conference wild-card hunt, pulled even to force overtime and grab a point.

Granted, the Islanders won 4-3 in overtime , which can be construed as a minor setback for the Canadiens. The thing is though, it was also a setback for the Islanders, who missed a chance to pick up a full two points on the wild-card Habs, who currently hold the second and final spot. Add in how both the seventh-place Ottawa Senators and now-10th-place New York Rangers lost that night in regulation, and the Habs arguably still came out ahead.

Literal Odds in Canadiens’ Favour

With 74 points in 68 games, the Canadiens hold a two-point lead over the Islanders. And, while the margin for error is slim, especially seeing as the Isles hold the first tiebreaker with 25 regulation wins to the Habs’ 24, you have to like the Habs’ chances.

You at least must believe the Canadiens themselves do.

True, as a result of the Islanders owning the tiebreaker, they own a slight edge in odds to make it in the end over the Canadiens, at least at the time this piece is being written. Right now, the Isles are at 37.2%, the Habs at 36.7%. The next-highest team in the mix, per MoneyPuck’s model , is the Rangers at 21.8%. Just to put it in perspective, the Rangers are also two points back, but have played two additional games compared to the former two.

It may not seem like much, but that’s a huge mountain to climb in a short time span, considering how long it took the Canadiens to climb back up the standings to regain their current spot.

Canadiens Winning Consistently

Before the 4 Nations Face-Off, the Canadiens had gone 1-7-1 to by all appearances fall out of the race altogether. Ever since returning, they’re an improbable 8-1-3.

Remember, the Canadiens had been at the literal bottom of the Eastern Conference in early December only to go on a 16-6-1 run that ended on Jan. 21, with them holding down the same playoff spot in which they find themselves currently. Then the floor fell out from under them, with various factors contributing to their downswing . By the tournament, they had fallen to six points out, when they had been eight points out with one game in hand going back all the way to Dec. 2.

In essence, over a single 2.5-week stretch, the Canadiens gave back all the ground they had gained in the standings over 1.5 months. So, what makes this time different? Well, for one, they’ve played this way before, proving it was no fluke. Second of all, the primary reason why they struggled to end January and start February was a lack of health. For all intents and purposes, the situation has turned around on that front. It’s at least in the process of turning around, anyway.

Guhle’s Impending Return

Granted, Kirby Dach is injured and won’t be returning this season. However, circumstances are different for defenseman Kaiden Guhle , who is reportedly on his way back in a matter of weeks . And, considering Guhle has had much more of an impact when he’s in the lineup relative to Dach, who’s largely struggled this season, that only means good things for the team’s overall chances.

Furthermore, it’s probably no coincidence the Canadiens’ resurgence has coincided with Emil Heineman’s return to the lineup after he had been on the shelf since mid-January. It’s not that Heineman himself is critical to the team’s success, as he’s just a single bottom-six forward at the end of the day. However, he’s a mainstay on an effective fourth line. Take Heineman out of the lineup and dominoes start to fall. If you want to actually play that fourth line with confidence, you’ve got to demote someone, which drastically transforms a lineup that had been gelling.

Once, Guhle returns, head coach Martin St. Louis will have that much more of a complete lineup, effectively giving him the trade-deadline acquisition general manager Kent Hughes didn’t (have to) get. While some analysts have bemoaned the lack of moves made earlier this month, Hughes’ inaction showed confidence in the team’s ability to go on at least another run to get back into playoff contention. With everyone (pretty much) healthy and firing on all cylinders, it’s paid off .

Canadiens Each Pulling Their Weight

Obviously, goalie Sam Montembeault didn’t have his best game against the Islanders, allowing four goals, a few questionable going back to his previous outing, on 25 shots. However, context is key. This season, he’s 25-21-5 with a 2.86 goals-against average and .900 save percentage. He has one of .914 over his last nine games, during which he’s unbeaten in regulation at 7-0-2.

With that, there will always be bad games down the stretch for individual Canadiens. It’s more of a big-picture situation, wherein every Habs players is contributing overall to the one collective goal of making the playoffs. Absolutely no one should realistically expect Montembeault to keep up that same pace over the rest of the schedule, when he’s been an .898 goalie in his career.

All fans can reasonably hope for is for the Canadiens to do their jobs, i.e., what they’re paid to do, in relative unison, and, seemingly through collective buy-in of St. Louis’ coaching, that’s what’s been happening. Some analysts may single out Patrik Laine pointing out his relative aloof demeanour. However, if Laine has five goals and 11 points in 10 games since returning from the 4 Nations Face-Off himself (he does), it’s safe to say he, who has a reputation for just that, is also doing exactly what he’s paid to do.

Hughes didn’t acquire Laine thinking he was getting a completely different player from the one who’s been in the NHL nearly a decade. He knew exactly who Laine was, and any suggestions that Laine is a drag on the team clearly isn’t paying attention to their on-ice performances as a whole. The team is playing well, and there’s little reason to doubt that will end.

Strength of Schedule

It’s not just that the Canadiens are playing well… Down the stretch, they’ll be facing teams against whom they have played well in the past. Not only is their remaining schedule strength favourable (ranking fifth out of the arguably six total teams currently battling it out for the last wild-card spot). They have a 13-6 record against their remaining opposition, by far the best mark of the six .

Granted, the Canadiens still have to actually win those games, with a few even against teams in the race, presenting potential for wild swings in the standings, in either direction. However, it would be objectively fair to say, if, heading into the season, the Habs knew they’d be in this position with 14 games remaining, they’d have taken it, because, at this point, they hold their fate in their hands.

The Canadiens just need to keep winning. They’ve already proven they can.