Analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of each Preakness horse

BALTIMORE — Remember that a race track prefers bettors to win, rather than lose. The track gets no more money if the favorite or a long shot wins. And if you have more winners, it can feed into the churn with more people making bets. The more money wagered, the more money the track makes.

With that in mind, Brisnet, the data company owned by Churchill Downs, provides stats to help people with their handicapping.

With permission, here are the stats for this year’s Preakness. (Note: Because Heart of Honor did most of his racing in Dubai, there are no stats for him. Because Goal Oriented is lightly raced, he is not represented in every category.)

Speed Last Race

Goal Oriented 104

Journalism 102

Clever Again 99

River Thames 96

Pay Billy 95

Gosger 93

Sandman 90

American Promise 63

Back Speed

Journalism 108

American Promise 105

Sandman 101

River Thames 99

Pay Billy 97

Clever Again 93

Gosger 93

Current Class

Journalism 121.7

Sandman 121.1

River Thames 119.4

Gosger 118.4

American Promise 118.2

Pay Billy 117.8

Clever Again 115.7

Average Class Last Three

Journalism 122.4

Sandman 120.6

River Thames 119.9

Goal Oriented 118.4

Gosger 117.7

Pay Billy 117.5

American Promise 117.0

Clever Again 115.9

Prime Power

Journalism 157.3

Sandman 151.8

River Thames 144.4

American Promise 142.2

Goal Oriented 142.0

Pay Billy 139.7

Gosger 136.6

Clever Again 136.6

Early Pace Last Race

American Promise 101

Clever Again 98

Goal Oriented 97

River Thames 96

Journalism 88

Pay Billy 88

Gosger 85

Sandman 74

Late Pace Last Race

Goal Oriented 100

Gosger 95

Clever Again 91

Pay Billy 90

Journalism 88

River Thames 85

Sandman 74

American Promise 19

Mud Speed

Goal Oriented 104

Journalism 102

American Promise 92

Sandman 90

Pay Billy 67

Preakness Stakes horses: 1. Goal Oriented

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Owners: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital and Catherine Donovan

Purchase price: $425,000

Sire: Not This Time

Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0

Winnings: $111,960

Last race: Won allowance at Churchill Downs

Morning line: 6-1

Horse Racing Nationfair odds: 16-1

Comment: One wonders if Goal Oriented would be in the race if Rodriguez were healthy. Both horses have the same owners, who, frankly, like to watch their horses run. Rodriguez would have been the second favorite in the Preakness. Rodriguez scratched in the Kentucky Derby and was pointed to the Preakness. But, his tender hoof kept him out of the first two legs of the Triple Crown and he is now pointed to the Belmont Stakes. OK, what about Goal Oriented? He is lightly raced, having won a maiden special at Santa Anita and then an allowance/optional claimer at Churchill Downs on Derby day over a wet track. So, that shouldn’t be a problem. Picking up Flavien Prat for the second straight race makes him a serious contender. Trainer Bob Baffert usually jokes that they put his horse in the one post and then draw the rest of the field. While it was a joke, Baffert had the one in the Derby with Citizen Bull and now has it again with Goal Oriented. Baffert wouldn’t be running this colt if he didn’t think the horse had a puncher’s chance. He will likely be on or near the lead. Baffert, who has won eight Preakness Stakes, has won twice from the one, American Pharoah in 2015 and National Treasure in 2023.

Weather forecast suggest Preakness will be staged on a dry track

BALTIMORE — You can put away the ark, the Preakness will be run on a dry track with very little chance of rain.

The Baltimore area has been battered all week by rain and thunderstorms. In fact, Friday’s Black-Eyed Susan Stakes for 3-year-old fillies was delayed 67 minutes. The track issued a shelter in place order as thunderstorms rolled through the area. Even Saturday morning, traffic lights were still out in several areas of the city.

According to weather.com, there is a 15% chance of rain during the day, dropping to 0% at 6 p.m. EDT. The Preakness will be run at 7:01 p.m. EDT.

Two weeks ago, the Kentucky Derby was run over a muddy track. In that race, the favorite, Journalism, handled the slop very well, even though he finished second. A sloppy track in Baltimore would not have been a problem. Journalism is expected to go off as the heavy favorite in Saturday’s 1 3/16 mile Preakness Stakes.

As the first race approached on Saturday, the track was listed as good, but it’s expected to be upgraded to fast as the day wears on. The temperature is projected to rise to 87 degrees by 2 p.m. EDT and 88 degrees by 4 p.m. EDT. That’s more than enough time to dry out the track.

The turf course was also listed as good, but is expected to move to firm as the day progresses.

“I think everybody would prefer a fast track,” Michael McCarthy, Journalism’s trainer, said earlier in the week. “You don’t see real muddy racetracks anymore. … It’s really the same for everybody.”

Bob Baffert knows he can win from the rail with Goal Oriented

BALTIMORE — The post position in the Kentucky Derby is very important given that there could be 20 horses spread across the track. In the Preakness, it’s not nearly as important, especially when there’s only nine starters.

Trainer Bob Baffert has drawn the one hole in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness this year. Citizen Bull got the rail in the Derby and Goal Oriented got it for Saturday’s Preakness.

“My horses really are very familiar with the rail for some reason,” Baffert said earlier in the week standing outside the stakes barn. “And so, they have to break well. I’ve been five, six, seven, eight, nine and we’ve won from different spots. We won from the rail twice here. It’s not like Kentucky Derby rail. It’s a different animal there.”

Baffert won the 2015 Preakness with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and the 2023 race with National Treasure, both breaking from the one.

Here’s a look at which post positions have won the most at the Preakness since 1909. (Note: the outside posts don’t have as many wins because the Preakness rarely fills its maximum size of 14 horses.)

1 — 12 (most recent National Treasure in 2023)

2 — 12 (Cloud Computing, 2017)

3 — 12 (California Chrome, 2014)

4 — 14 (Swiss Skydiver, 2020)

5 — 13 (Early Voting, 2022)

6 — 18 (Seize the Grey, 2024)

7 — 14 (Justify, 2018)

8 — 9 (Bernardini, 2006)

9 — 4 (I’ll Have Another, 2012)

10 — 2 (Real Quiet, 1998)

11—2 (Point Given, 2001)

12 — 3 (Afleet Alex, 2005)

13 — 1 (Rachel Alexandra, 2009)

Betting odds: Journalism is the favorite

BALTIMORE — Betting on the Preakness is never as robust as the Kentucky Derby, but it is significantly higher than just an average race day.

It’s pretty clear that Journalism will be the favorite, it’s just a matter of how low his odds will go. He was at even money as wagering started on Saturday, which was lower than his 8-5 morning-line odds. The longest shot on the board is the runner-up in the UAE Derby, Heart of Honor. He is at 22-1, higher than his 12-1 morning-line odds.

The odds will fluctuate more than at the Kentucky Derby, but the later it gets in the day and the more money in wagering pool, things tend to stabilize.

So far, $1.9 million has been bet in the win pool.

Here are the odds with eight hours to go.

1 — Goal Oriented 7-1

2 — Journalism 1-1

3 — American Promise 10-1

4 — Heart of Honor 12-1

5 — Pay Billy 13-1

6 — River Thames 9-1

7 — Sandman 6-1

8 — Clever Again 5-1

9 — Gosger 20-1

‘Will pays’ offer glimpse at betting favorites to win Preakness Stakes

BALTIMORE — One of the best indicators of which horses will be taking the most amount of betting money can often be found once the first race of a two-day double is over. In this case the Black-Eyed Susan is on Friday and the Preakness is on Saturday.

Margie’s Intention won the Friday feature, so you can look to the “will pays” to get a sense as to what the public is thinking.

So, here are the “will pays” hooking up the winner of the Black-Eyed Susan with the nine horses in the Preakness.

1 — Goal Oriented $35.60

2 — Journalism $7.50

3 — American Promise $122.80

4 — Heart of Honor $160.00

5 — Pay Billy $352.70

6 — River Thames $35.60

7 — Sandman $63.20

8 — Clever Again $27.50

9 — Gosger $146.30

It tells us what we already knew, Journalism will be the overwhelming favorite.

What time does the Preakness Stakes start? What TV channel is it on?

BALTIMORE — Yes, we know it’s not the Kentucky Derby. And yes, we know the winner of the Derby, Sovereignty, will not be in the race. But there is some history to be made in the 150th running of Preakness Stakes.

Getting right to the point, the Preakness Stakes is scheduled to start at 7:01 p.m. EDT in Baltimore and will be shown on NBC. Much like the safety instructions on an airplane, we’re going to give you the details, even though you may know them.

• If you are in Los Angeles or on the West Coast, the race will go off at 4:01 p.m. PDT.
• If you are one time zone over in the Mountain time zone, you know, like Denver, the race will start at 5:01 p.m. MDT.
• If you are in Chicago or anywhere else in the Central time zone, the race will go off at 6:01 p.m. CDT.
• And finally, bringing it back full circle, if you’re on the East Coast, or Baltimore, there is no time adjustment. Post is listed at 7:01 p.m. EDT.

Now the race is more likely to go a few minutes late and almost no chance it will go a few minutes early.

What makes this race special is it will be the last Preakness at Pimlico Race Course, as it is currently configured. The state of Maryland is going to start demolition on the track almost immediately after the race with the hopes of finishing the rebuild in two years. Now, not finishing it in two years is a bet worth taking. When was the last time a major rebuild was done on time? That’s what we thought. The race will move to nearby Laurel Park, which is where most of the racing in Maryland is currently held.

NBC will cover the race before Fox takes over for the Belmont. That means Channel 4 in Los Angeles and New York, Channel 5 in Chicago and Channel 9 in Denver. Of course, you can get all the coverage on NBC’s streaming platform Peacock.

The coverage starts at 2 p.m. on the East Coast (11 a.m. on the West Coast) for two hours on CNBC. Then the big boy network takes over at 4 p.m. local (1 p.m. in L.A.) and goes until 7:30 p.m.

Mike Tirico will resume his spot as the host after he had to leave the Derby broadcast early because of a nut allergy gone bad. The rest of the crew is familiar with Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss serving as analysts, Matt Bernier is the handicapper, Ahmed Fareed is listed as both a host and reporter, joining other reporters Britney Eurton, Donna Brothers, Kenny Rice and Nick Luck. Calling the race for television is Larry Collmus, the new full-time race caller at Del Mar, replacing the retired Trevor Denman.

The real gems, however, are Steve Kornacki, the khaki-wearing data genius for both NBC News and NBC Sports (he’s also a big-time racing fan) and the talented Tim Layden, who will do an essay on the 150th Preakness Stakes. (Warning to any journalists reading this story, if you are both given the same assignment, it’s guaranteed he will outwrite you.)

NBC did provide a list of their coverage extras, which we will share, in its words.

• A look at the team of Preakness Stakes contender Heart of Honor — who is trained by Jamie Osborne with his daughter Saffie Osborne in the saddle as the jockey
• A look back at the 151st Kentucky Derby and runner-up Journalism, who entered the Derby as the favorite
• “High Tea on Old Hilltop” segment featuring Nick Luck engaging with fans in the Pimlico infield
• Multiple super slo-mo cameras providing fans with a unique look at any photo finishes
• Multiple jockey cam systems throughout Preakness coverage
• Aerial coverage from a fixed wing plane and live drone
• A camera focused on race caller Larry Collmus

So, that a look at what your afternoon (and early evening) can look like if you want to watch the 150th running of the Preakness Stakes.